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Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research

Wiley

Preprints posted in the last 7 days, ranked by how well they match Alcoholism: Clinical and Experimental Research's content profile, based on 14 papers previously published here. The average preprint has a 0.01% match score for this journal, so anything above that is already an above-average fit.

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Age Differences in the Reproducibility of Seasonal Peak Timing for Alcohol-Associated Injury: A Seven-Year Cosinor and Jackknife Analysis of U.S. Emergency Department Surveillance Data

Ghuman, D.; Achar, T.; Gambhirrao, D.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361527 medRxiv
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Background Alcohol-associated injury is a leading cause of emergency department (ED) utilization in the United States and a clinically important driver of preventable morbidity across the adult lifespan. Prior surveillance research has characterized how the rate and severity of alcohol-associated injury vary by patient age, but whether the seasonal timing of injury risk is equally predictable across age groups (a question directly relevant to the timing of clinical screening intensification and public health intervention) has not been formally tested. Methods We conducted a retrospective surveillance analysis of 45,876 alcohol-associated ED visits among adults aged 18 years and older, identified from the National Electronic Injury Surveillance System (NEISS), 2019-2025 (weighted national estimate: 2,092,319 visits), using the structured Alcohol_Involved indicator introduced into NEISS case abstraction in 2019. Patients were stratified by sex and five age groups (18-24, 25-34, 35-49, 50-64, and [&ge;]65 years). Single-harmonic cosinor (Poisson) regression was used to estimate the seasonal peak day of injury risk (acrophase) for each stratum. To assess reliability, we performed leave-one-year-out jackknife resampling (seven iterations per group), case-resampling bootstrap confidence intervals (1,000 iterations), and likelihood-ratio tests of seasonal-phase interactions. Results Peak injury timing differed significantly across age groups (X^2 [8] = 2356.2, p < .0001). Adults aged 25-64 years showed a highly reproducible early-to-mid-July peak, with jackknife estimates shifting [&le;]14 days when any single study year was excluded. Adults aged [&ge;]65 years showed significant seasonal variation annually (all p < .0001, amplitude comparable to younger groups) but a pooled peak estimate that shifted by up to 100 days across jackknife iterations. Sex-stratified analyses revealed that this instability was driven entirely by females aged [&ge;]65 years (jackknife range: 332 days, peak consistently in late October through early January) rather than males aged [&ge;]65 (jackknife range: 31 days, peak consistently in early August). Hospital admission rates increased monotonically with age from 9.0% (18-24 years) to 31.8% ([&ge;]65 years). Conclusions Alcohol-associated injury follows a reproducible, calendar-stable summer seasonal pattern in adults aged 25-64 years. Among adults [&ge;]65 years, the previously reported temporal instability is concentrated in the female subgroup, whose seasonal injury risk does not converge on a fixed calendar window. These findings suggest that fixed-calendar prevention and screening strategies are well suited to working-age adults and older men, but older women may require a year-round, individually tailored approach. Keywords: Alcohol-related injury; Emergency department; Seasonality; Age factors; Sex differences; Injury surveillance; Cosinor analysis; Older adults

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Does genetic liability for autism influence alcohol use?

Page, S.; Easey, K.; Sedgewick, F.; Rai, D.; Stergiakouli, E.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26360336 medRxiv
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A body of research suggests that autistic individuals are less likely to drink alcohol than neurotypicals. However, emerging studies support a link between autism and alcohol use. This complex relationship is also reflected in studies that have examined the genetic overlap between the two traits. However, it is unclear whether there is a direct causal relationship between them. To explore this, we applied a combination of polygenic score and Mendelian randomisation analyses using publicly available genome-wide summary statistics and phenotypic measures of autism and alcohol consumption from UK Biobank. LD score regression analyses did not provide evidence of a genetic correlation between genetic liability for autism and drinks consumed per week (rg=-0.08; CI95%=-0.19, 0.03). Further, findings from polygenic score analyses did not support an association between genetic liability for autism and overall monthly alcohol intake. Univariable Mendelian randomisation analyses showed little evidence for a total effect of autism, attention deficit hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) or depression on overall monthly alcohol consumption. Multivariable Mendelian randomisation analyses also showed little evidence of a direct effect of autism on drinks per week when controlling for ADHD and depression. It is plausible that genetic liability for autism does not directly increase the amount of alcohol consumed but instead operates via commonly co-occurring difficulties in the autistic community. However, our findings may be due to methodological shortcomings, including weak instruments biasing effects towards to the null. Consequently, results should be interpreted with caution and further research conducted to address these issues.

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Frontostriatal interactions and socioenvironmental associations with alcohol and cannabis onset in the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development Study

Thiessen, K. A.; Breslin, F. J.; Kerr, K. L.

2026-08-31 addiction medicine 10.64898/2026.08.26.26360720 medRxiv
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Adolescent substance use is a major public health concern due to increased risk of future physical and mental health conditions. Fronto-striatal functioning - particularly regarding inhibition and reward processing - may increase vulnerability to high-risk substance use. However, it remains unclear if these neurobiological differences precede substance use or are consequences of it. The ongoing Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study follows over 10000 youth, offering an unprecedented opportunity to longitudinally examine substance use patterns throughout development. We utilized family-clustered time-varying Cox proportional hazard models to prospectively examine main and interaction effects of right Inferior Frontal Gyrus (IFG) inhibitory control and bilateral nucleus accumbens (NAc) reward response, alongside early life adversity and peer substance use as predictors of alcohol and cannabis onset in the ABCD Study. We identified a significant crossover interaction such that left NAc activity had a slight positive association with first full alcoholic drink in the context of higher right IFG activity but a negative association in the context of lower right IFG activity. However, peer alcohol and cannabis use emerged as the strongest predictors of outcomes. Alcohol onset was also more common in females, and early life adversity was associated only with cannabis onset. Findings indicate that interactions between inhibition- and reward-related brain regions may impact risk for early substance use onset, but these effects may be modest relative to socioenvironmental factors. Additionally, divergent alcohol and cannabis findings suggest that risk profiles are substance specific. Peer-focused strategies should be considered in preventive efforts.

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Secondhand Cannabis Smoke Exposure: Prevalence, Personal Use, and Neurocognitive Trajectories Over Time in Adolescents in the United States

Bastien, J.; Garcia, K.; Wallace, A. L.; Sullivan, R. M.; Hoh, E.; Wade, N. E.

2026-09-02 psychiatry and clinical psychology 10.64898/2026.08.31.26361835 medRxiv
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Background: As cannabis policy changes in the United States, secondhand cannabis smoke (SCS) is increasingly common, including within families. However, prevalence of exposure and clinical correlates over time in adolescents are not fully understood. Objectives: (1) To estimate the prevalence of SCS and personal cannabis use in US-based teens exposed to SCS, and (2) examine the cognitive trajectories of adolescents exposed to SCS compared to non-exposed peers. Methods: Data from the Adolescent Brain Cognitive Development (ABCD) Study was used. Participants (n=11,316 of full cohort with follow-up data; n=776 with self-reported family SCS exposure) attended yearly visits from ages 11-17, completing substance use interviews, toxicological testing, and the NIH Toolbox Cognitive battery. Youth with SCS but no personal cannabis use (n=419; 47% female) were matched on prenatal substance exposure, family substance use history, and sociodemographics to non-SCS exposed and non-cannabis-using youth with a 1:2 ratio (Controls n=838). Linear mixed-effects models assessed cognitive performance by SCS*age interactions, accounting for random effects of subject and family. Covariates included sex and alcohol, nicotine, and other substance use. Secondary models analyzed performance by cumulative waves of reported SCS exposure interacting with age. Results: Of the full cohort, 6.9% (n=776) reported exposure to SCS. Of these individuals, 46% endorsed lifetime personal cannabis use by age 17, relative to 20% of non-SCS exposed youth (OR=3.83[95%CI:3.29,4.44]). Within matched participants, SCS*age demonstrated a significant interaction on attention and inhibitory control ({beta}=-0.32, p=.028), with SCS demonstrating reduced improvement over time. More waves of exposure were also associated with worse performance over time ({beta}=-0.39, p=.057). Discussion: Almost half of those who had been exposed to SCS endorsed personal cannabis use. Cognitive findings were domain specific, similar to findings in secondhand tobacco: SCS exposed youth showed restricted improvement in attention and inhibitory control by age 17. Public health and policymakers should make efforts to curb youth SCS exposure, given the potential for risk which has not been fully explored to date.

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Testing Claimed Associations of Prenatal Acetaminophen with Neurodevelopmental Disorders: Re-analysis Using Bias-Correction Methods

Grover, A.; Reis-Pardal, J.; Ellis, R. J.; Ioannidis, J.; Patel, C. J.

2026-09-04 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361666 medRxiv
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Background: A 2025 systematic review concluded there was "strong evidence of a likely relationship" between prenatal acetaminophen exposure and neurodevelopmental disorders, informing a federal health advisory, based on qualitative synthesis without quantitative pooling or bias correction. We reanalysed the same studies to test whether this association withstands standard meta-analytic and bias-correction methods. Methods: We used 24 of 46 studies from a 2025 Navigation Guide systematic review (PubMed search through 25 February 2025) that reported a ratio measure (hazard ratio, odds ratio, relative risk, or incidence rate ratio). Estimates were collapsed to one per study, outcome group, and design, yielding 30 study-level estimates (sample sizes, 307-2,480,797) for attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD), autism spectrum disorder (ASD), and other neurodevelopmental disorders. We applied random-effects meta-analysis, eight publication-bias-correction methods, a credibility-ceiling sensitivity analysis, and five quality-filtered subsets, then repeated all analyses after harmonising odds and hazard ratios onto a common risk-ratio scale. Results: The ASD association attenuated from 1.14 (95% CI, 1.01-1.28) to 1.08 (95% CI, 0.97-1.19; P=.17) once each study was weighted once rather than by its number of sub-analyses, before any bias correction. The ADHD association remained positive under most bias-correction methods (range, 1.02-1.31), but its 95% CI crossed 1.00 under a 15% credibility ceiling. The other-NDD association reversed direction under one method (ratio, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.65-1.19) and showed no right-skew on p-curve testing (P=.71). Conclusions: The claim of "strong evidence" for an acetaminophen-neurodevelopmental-disorder association was not supported by this reanalysis. A modest ADHD association persisted, while ASD and other-NDD estimates moved toward the null.

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The Role of Distress-related Metabolic Dysfunction in Ovarian Cancer Development: a pooled case-control study

Lin, N.; Balasubramanian, R.; Menichetti, G.; Eliassen, H.; Trabert, B.; Avila-Pacheco, J.; Townsend, M. K.; Terry, K. L.; Clish, C. B.; Tworoger, S. S.; Zeleznik, O. A.

2026-08-31 epidemiology 10.64898/2026.08.27.26361473 medRxiv
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Background: Evidence suggests chronic distress influences ovarian cancer (OC) etiology and metabolomic profiles. Here, we evaluated the association of a metabolite-based distress score (MDS) and OC risk. Methods: We included two matched case-control studies nested within the Nurses' Health Studies (N=584) and the Prostate, Lung, Colorectal, and Ovarian Cancer Screening Trial (N=348). Metabolites were measured 3-27 years before diagnosis using liquid-chromatography tandem mass spectrometry. We examined the association of quintiles of MDS and 19 constituent metabolites with OC risk using unconditional logistic regression and stratified by tumor histotype, menopausal status, and age at diagnosis. Results: We observed women in the highest versus lowest quintile of MDS had an increased OC risk (OR=1.62,95%CI=1.03-2.54,ptrend=0.07), and type 2 tumors (OR=1.71,95%CI=1.03-2.83,ptrend=0.11). Associations were suggestively stronger for premenopausal and <69-year-old women, and driven by pseudouridine, and N2,N2-dimethylguanosine. Conclusion: Our findings suggest chronic distress-associated metabolic dysregulation may represent a novel OC risk factor, especially among younger women.

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Half of alcohol, drug, and self-harm presentations cannot be identified in coded emergency department data: a diagnostic accuracy study of a large language model

Humphries, C.; Brett, J.; Gruber, F.; James, E.; McKendrick, T. I.; McNairn, K. C.; Miell, A.; O'Brien, R.; Rahman, F.; Schölin, L.; Stewart, M.; Casey, A.

2026-08-31 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361443 medRxiv
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Objective To measure the accuracy of clinical coding, clinician review, and a locally deployed large language model (LLM) in identifying alcohol, drug, and self-harm involvement in emergency department (ED) attendances, and quantify prevalence. Design Two-phase diagnostic accuracy study. In a validation week, the identification strategies were assessed against a conflict-adjudicated reference standard (n=2,256); the LLM was then applied to n=105,096 annual attendances at the same site. Setting UK Type 1 Emergency Department treating patients [&ge;]16yrs. Main outcome measures Prevalence quantification compared with the reference standard; sensitivity, specificity, and balanced accuracy of each strategy; monthly identification rates and adjusted annual prevalence. Results The reference standard identified 12.1% of attendances as involving alcohol, drugs, or self-harm (coding 6.0%; clinician 10.0%, LLM 15.6%). LLM balanced accuracy matched or outperformed clinician review in all three domains (alcohol 0.942 v 0.930, p=0.635; drug 0.959 v 0.791, p<0.001; self-harm 0.982 v 0.908, p=0.004). Coding recorded 1.07 domains per identified patient against 1.32 in the reference standard. Adjusted annual prevalence corresponded to 12,890 domain involvements per year not identifiable in coded data. Subdomain classification found at least 81.6% of self-harm attendances required medical assessment for injury or overdose before psychiatric review. Conclusions Clinical coding identified fewer than half of presentations involving alcohol, drugs, and self-harm and rarely captured co-occurring domains; under-recording was present across a full year. A locally deployed LLM generated more complete structured data from existing clinical text within NHS infrastructure, at a scale which is not feasible for manual review.

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Schizophrenia-like neurodevelopmental pathology reshapes experience-dependent brain network remodeling following adolescent alcohol exposure

Houdant, C.; Khalilian, M.; Fortineau, Z.; Rouanet, C.; Leuillier, E.; Madeline, M.; Fall, S.; Aarabi, A.; Jeanblanc, J.; Naassila, M.

2026-09-01 neuroscience 10.64898/2026.08.26.747060 medRxiv
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Background Alcohol use disorder (AUD) is highly prevalent in schizophrenia, yet the neurobiological basis of this vulnerability remains poorly understood. Neurodevelopmental models suggest that pre-existing brain dysconnectivity may increase vulnerability to AUD. We therefore tested whether schizophrenia-like neurodevelopmental pathology alters how alcohol-related experience is incorporated into large-scale brain networks. Methods Resting-state functional connectivity was assessed in male Sprague-Dawley rats (n = 18-21/group) with neonatal ventral hippocampal lesions (NVHL), a neurodevelopmental model of schizophrenia, and sham-operated controls, with or without voluntary adolescent alcohol exposure. Functional connectivity was assessed using seed-to-voxel and seed-to-seed analyses within a cortico-striato-limbic network. We additionally examined whether individual alcohol intake during adolescence predicted adult functional connectivity according to neurodevelopmental status. Results NVHL and adolescent alcohol exposure independently produced predominantly hypoconnected cortico-striato-limbic networks. However, alcohol exposure did not exacerbate NVHL-associated dysconnectivity but instead induced a distinct network reorganization characterized by functional hyperconnectivity. Although alcohol intake was comparable between groups, dose-dependent relationships between adolescent alcohol consumption and adult functional connectivity were observed in sham animals but were absent or markedly attenuated in NVHL rats. These effects were primarily centered on prelimbic cortex connectivity with the amygdala, hippocampus, and dorsal striatum, highlighting this circuitry as a major locus of altered experience-dependent remodeling. Conclusions These findings suggest that vulnerability to AUD associated with schizophrenia-like neurodevelopment may arise less from additive network dysfunction than from an altered capacity of large-scale brain networks for experience-dependent functional remodeling. Schizophrenia-like neurodevelopmental pathology may therefore change how alcohol-related experience is translated into persistent brain network organization.

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GLP-1/GIP Uptake, Indication, and Access Pathways Among US Adults in the Understanding America Study

Chaturvedi, R. R.; Gracner, T.; Perez-Arce, F.; Suen, S.-c.; Jin, J.; Orriens, B.; Pacula, R. L.; Sexton Ward, A.; Haile, R.; Kapteyn, A.

2026-09-02 endocrinology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361368 medRxiv
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Importance: Evidence on GLP-1/GIP therapies is largely derived from trials enrolling selected populations or medical records that miss utilization outside healthcare channels. No nationally representative cohort has characterized real-world uptake, indications, and access. Objective: To characterize GLP-1/GIP prevalence, indication, clinical profile, and access. Design: Prospective cohort study with three GLP-1/GIP surveillance waves (March 2024, December 2024, October 2025). Setting: The Understanding America Study, an address-based, nationally representative panel of approximately 15,000 US adults aged 18+ years initiated in 2014. Participants: UAS participants responding to at least one surveillance wave (n=9150). Exposures: GLP-1/GIP use status (never vs any use, comprising current and former use), self-reported primary indication (diabetes, weight loss, or other), and access pathway (traditional vs non-traditional). Main Outcomes and Measures: Survey-weighted prevalence of GLP-1/GIP use, overall and by indication and access pathway; sociodemographic, cardiometabolic, treatment, and access characteristics; and smartwatch-derived resting heart rate, heart rate variability, maximum activity heart rate, step count, and sleep duration and variability. Results: Among n=9150 adults (1274 with any use; 60.9% female; median age 53 years), weighted prevalence increased 46%, from 8.2% (March 2024) to 12.0% (October 2025) representing 32 million. Weight-loss indications grew, reaching nearly half of use (4.1% to 5.6%); diabetes-indicated use was stable (5.3% to 5.4%). Users carried high cardiometabolic burden (obesity, 68.2%; diabetes, 53.6%) but diverged by indication: diabetes-indicated users were older (median, 59 vs 49 years), whereas weight-loss-indicated users were more often female (69.9% vs 51.3%) and healthier. One in three users (~9 million) had non-traditional access, especially in weight-loss-indicated users, of whom 33% had no conventional prescription; 41% used compounding, online, or foreign pharmacies; and, 43% lacked coverage. Non-traditional users were five times as likely to report an unlisted, likely compounded formulation (19.8% vs 4.1%). All p<0.05. Conclusions and Relevance: Real-world GLP-1/GIP use has grown rapidly and diversified substantially in indication, access, and population profile. One in 3 users obtained treatment through nontraditional channels largely invisible to claims data, raising long-term safety, efficacy, and coverage questions. GLIMMER provides a public, nationally representative longitudinal evidence base for future payer and provider decisions.

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Evaluating Mean Platelet Volume in relation to Disease Severity in Paediatric Sickle Cell Anaemia: A Cross-Sectional Study in Kwara State, North-Central Nigeria

Oladimeji, F. D.; Adewoyin, A. D.; Oyeleke, K. O.

2026-09-02 hematology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361349 medRxiv
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Background: Sickle cell anaemia (SCA) is characterised by chronic haemolysis, inflammation, platelet activation, and recurrent vaso-occlusive complications. Mean platelet volume (MPV) is a readily available platelet index, but evidence regarding its relationship with disease severity in paediatric SCA remains limited and inconsistent, particularly in African populations. Objective: To evaluate the relationship between MPV and disease severity among children with SCA in Kwara State, North-Central Nigeria. Methods: This hospital-based cross-sectional study included 51 clinically stable children with confirmed SCA consecutively recruited from the paediatric haematology clinic of Children Emergency Specialist Hospital, Ilorin. Complete blood count, including MPV, was performed using a Rayto RT-7600 automated haematology analyser. Disease severity was assessed using a composite clinical and laboratory scoring system based on a previously described method. Pearson's correlation, Spearman's rank correlation, simple linear regression, and the Kruskal-Wallis test were used as appropriate. Statistical significance was set at p < 0.05. Results: Of 51 participants, 14 (27.5%) had mild, 33 (64.7%) moderate, and 4 (7.8%) severe disease. Mean MPV was 9.34 +/- 0.76 fL (range, 8.0-11.2). Pearson's correlation showed a weak positive, non-significant linear relationship with severity score (r = 0.231, p = 0.103), whereas Spearman's analysis showed a weak positive monotonic association (rho = 0.286, p = 0.042). Regression explained 5.3% of severity-score variation (R2 = 0.053, p = 0.103). MPV did not differ significantly across severity categories (H = 2.163, p = 0.339). MPV correlated inversely with haemoglobin (r = -0.556, p < 0.001) and positively with platelet count (r = 0.307, p = 0.029). Conclusion: MPV showed a weak relationship with disease severity but inconsistent statistical evidence across analyses. The limited explained variance and absence of significant differences between severity categories do not support MPV as a standalone severity marker. Larger longitudinal studies are warranted. Keywords: Sickle cell anaemia; Mean platelet volume; Disease severity; Platelet indices; Paediatric haematology; Cross-sectional study; Nigeria.

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Are Frontier Large Language Models Safer Than Government-Backed Symptom Checkers for Clinical Self-Triage? A Standardised Vignette Evaluation

Chowdhury, A. R.; Chowdhury, B.

2026-09-02 health informatics 10.64898/2026.09.01.26361908 medRxiv
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Background: Consumer use of AI chatbots for health advice is rising, yet triage safety relative to established services remains unclear. Australia's Healthdirect, a government-backed symptom checker with 2.4 million uses in FY2024-25, remains unevaluated against frontier large language models (LLMs), and whether premium subscriptions improve triage safety remains unexplored. This study compared the triage accuracy and safety of Healthdirect against six LLM configurations across ChatGPT, Claude, and Gemini, assessed whether paid subscriptions improve triage safety, and characterised each system's error patterns. Methods: Forty-five clinical vignettes from the Semigran et al. benchmark spanning emergency, non-emergent, and self-care categories (15 each) were evaluated across seven systems. Healthdirect was tested following a seven-rule interaction protocol. LLMs were evaluated using first-person patient-language prompts under free-tier and paid-tier conditions. Outcomes were triage accuracy, emergency sensitivity, under-triage, and critical misses, analysed using Cochran's Q, Bonferroni-corrected McNemar tests, Cohen's kappa, and Wilson intervals. Findings: Triage accuracy differed significantly (Cochran's Q = 36.79, p < 0.001). Healthdirect achieved 48.9% accuracy (95% CI 35.0% to 63.0%; kappa = 0.233) versus 73.3% to 86.7% for LLMs (kappa = 0.600 to 0.800). Healthdirect operated under conservative interactive defaults while LLMs received complete information in a single prompt, which may have disadvantaged Healthdirect. Emergency sensitivity was 46.7% versus 80.0% to 86.7% for LLMs. Healthdirect produced two critical misses; no LLM produced any across 270 evaluations (95% CI 0% to 1.4%). When LLMs undertriaged, they recommended GP care rather than self-care. No tier differences were significant (all p > 0.05), and most systems over-triaged self-care cases. Interpretation: Frontier LLMs demonstrated higher triage accuracy and safer error profiles than Healthdirect. All LLMs avoided critical misses; Healthdirect did not. Premium subscriptions did not significantly improve triage safety. These findings support clinical governance decisions about whether LLMs warrant formal evaluation alongside government-backed symptom checkers.

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ECG-based longitudinal risk prediction across diseases and organ systems

ye, y.; Zeng, Z.; Tian, X.; Yuan, Z.; Wang, J.; Zhu, Y.

2026-09-02 health informatics 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361697 medRxiv
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Artificial intelligence applied to routine electrocardiograms (ECGs) has largely focused on detecting existing disease or predicting individual cardiovascular outcomes. Whether ECGs can support prediction of multiple future diseases across organ systems remains unclear. We developed ECG-RISK, a multitask survival model for 67 incident three-character ICD-10 endpoints using ECG waveforms, demographic characteristics and routinely collected laboratory data from 86,673 MIMIC-IV patients. Discrimination was highest for heart, brain, kidney and lung endpoints, with organ-level C-indices ranging from 0.796 to 0.825, whereas liver and pancreatic endpoints showed lower discrimination. The ECG-only model achieved strong discrimination across most endpoints, whereas the incremental improvement gained by incorporating ECG and laboratory inputs beyond demographic information varied substantially across endpoints. Across the nine exploratory aggregated outcomes, Kaplan Meier curves showed clear separation among model-score tertiles. Discrimination was highest for dementia (C-index, 0.891) and heart failure (C-index, 0.857). These findings support the feasibility of ECG-based longitudinal risk prediction across multiple diseases. External validation and competing-risk analyses are required to assess generalisability and clinical utility.

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Certified large language model-based diagnostic decision support in rheumatology: the ALLIANCE multicentre randomised controlled trial

Kremer, P.; Schlicker, N.; Hasnaj, R.; Bamberger, J.; Witte, T.; Haase, I.; Mayr, A.; Schmidt, C.; Osteras, N.; Baraliakos, X.; Kuhn, S.; Krusche, M.; Knitza, J.

2026-09-02 rheumatology 10.64898/2026.08.29.26361715 medRxiv
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Objectives To evaluate whether access to a certified large language model (LLM)-based clinical decision support system improves physician diagnostic performance in rheumatology compared with conventional diagnostic resources alone. Methods In this multicentre, open-label, randomised controlled trial, 82 physicians from seven hospitals in two countries were randomised 1:1 to conventional diagnostic resources plus Prof. Valmed or conventional resources alone. Participants assessed three rheumatology vignettes before and after assistance. The primary outcome was top-1 diagnostic accuracy. Secondary outcomes included top-3 accuracy, diagnostic reasoning, confidence, case-processing time and perceived support quality. Results Top-1 accuracy increased from 22.2% to 33.3% in the intervention group and from 23.3% to 35.0% in the control group, with no between-group difference in improvement (adjusted OR 0.99, 95% CI 0.45 to 2.19; p=0.979). Differences in top-3 accuracy, diagnostic reasoning and confidence were also not significant. Assisted case-processing time was substantially shorter with LLM support (94 vs 206 s; adjusted mean difference -112 s, 95% CI -141 to -83; p<0.001). Information timeliness and perceived diagnostic support quality were rated significantly higher in the intervention group. Exploratory analyses showed persistent overconfidence and substantial AI over-reliance. Conclusions Certified LLM-based diagnostic support did not improve diagnostic accuracy compared with conventional resources, but substantially reduced case-processing time and improved perceived support quality. These findings suggest potential workflow benefits while highlighting overconfidence and over-reliance as important safety considerations.

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Optimizing Aqueous Humor Liquid Biopsy: Safety and Performance of a Short, Low-Dead-Space Ophthalmic Needle for Anterior Chamber Paracentesis

Singh, A. M.; Yeh, T.-C.; DeBoer, C.; Al-Moujahed, A.; Lin, J. B.; Smith, S. J.; Sanislo, S.; Janjua, K. A.; Lin, T.-C.; Almeida, D. R. P.; Mruthyunjaya, P.; Mahajan, V. B.

2026-09-02 ophthalmology 10.64898/2026.08.26.26361364 medRxiv
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Purpose: To evaluate the safety, procedural performance, sample recovery, and surgeon preference of an ophthalmic needle designed specifically for anterior chamber (AC) paracentesis. Methods: In this multicenter study, AC paracentesis was performed in clinic and operating-room settings using a 32-gauge x 4-mm needle with low dead space. The procedure was evaluated using a standardized physician survey. Prespecified outcomes included procedure-related adverse events (primary outcome), needle entry and handling, aspiration and sample recovery, comparative performance versus a 30-gauge needle, and physician preference for future use. Results: A total of 110 needle uses by eight surgeons were included. No ocular complications occurred, including lens or iris injury, hyphema, AC collapse, wound leak, hypotony, infection, or retinal complication, and no procedure required needle exchange or conversion to another device. Two technical events without ocular sequelae were noted, in which needle entry was partial thickness and did not reach the AC (1.8%; exact 95% CI, 0.2%-6.4%). Physicians rated needle entry, handling and sample recovery as good or excellent. Compared with a 30-gauge needle, the study needle was rated as at least comparable across all assessed domains. All surgeons rated it better or much better for intra-procedural safety and preferred it for future AC taps. Conclusions and Relevance: This short, 32-gauge low-dead-space ophthalmic needle demonstrated a favorable safety profile and was preferred over a 30-gauge needle by all surgeons. As aqueous humor liquid biopsy expands in clinical diagnostics and trials, an ophthalmic-specific needle design may help improve the consistency and safety of aqueous humor collection for molecular analysis and broader clinical use. Keywords: Anterior chamber paracentesis; Aqueous humor; Liquid biopsy; Low dead space; Ophthalmic needle

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Evaluation of the Efficacy and Safety of Combination Therapy of Vamha and Myrha in the Management of PMOS: An Open-Label, Randomized, Multicentre, Comparative, Prospective Clinical Study

Patil, A.; Barathe, R.; Tate, D. M.; Kate, K.; Pande, S.; Gawande, N.; More, A.; Mahadik, S.; Berde, K.; Singhvi, R.

2026-09-02 sexual and reproductive health 10.64898/2026.08.20.26360875 medRxiv
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Introduction: Polyendocrine metabolic ovarian syndrome (PMOS), formerly known as polycystic ovary syndrome (PCOS), is a common endocrine disorder affecting women of reproductive age. Besides reproductive and metabolic disturbances, PMOS negatively impacts psychological well-being and quality of life. Despite available treatment options, there remains a need for safe and effective therapies that improve both clinical symptoms and fertility outcomes. Aim: To compare the efficacy of VAMHA and MYRHA tablet combination therapy with standard non-hormonal therapy in restoring regular menstruation. Secondary objectives included assessment of ovulation, menstrual symptoms, polycystic ovarian morphology, hormonal and metabolic parameters, anthropometric measures, and skin manifestations. Study Design: Open-label, randomized, multicentre, prospective comparative clinical study. Methods: Seventy-one women with PMOS were randomized to Group A (n=37) or Group B (n=34). Group A received VAMHA and MYRHA tablets (2 tablets each), while Group B received Metformin 500 mg plus Myoinositol 600 mg (1 tablet), twice daily for 180 days. Data were recorded in Case Report Forms. Statistical Analysis: Continuous variables were summarized using mean and standard deviation, while categorical variables were expressed as frequencies and percentages. Appropriate statistical tests, including Chi-square, were used. A p-value [&le;]0.05 was considered significant. Results: Significantly more participants in Group A achieved regular menstrual cycles than Group B (31 vs. 22; p<0.05). Ovulation occurred in 16 participants in Group A compared with 6 in Group B (p<0.05). Both groups showed significant improvement in menstrual irregularity and related symptoms. Significant reductions in Anti-Mullerian Hormone (AMH), fasting insulin, and body mass index (BMI) were observed in both groups (p<0.05). Resolution of polycystic ovarian morphology occurred in 13 participants (38.23%) in Group A and 10 (33.33%) in Group B. Both treatments were well tolerated with no major safety concerns. Conclusions: VAMHA and MYRHA combination therapy was superior to standard non-hormonal therapy in improving menstrual regularity and ovulation. It also produced favourable metabolic, hormonal, and ultrasonographic outcomes, suggesting its potential as a safe and effective option for comprehensive PMOS management and fertility enhancement.

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Burden of fatigue in compensated chronic liver disease: findings from the multinational a:GAP Study

Choudhuri, G.; Akhundova-Unadkat, G.; Naidoo, N.; Morales-Castillo, M.; Guillaume, X.; Duijnhoven, R. G.; Safaei, A.; Swain, M. G.

2026-09-02 gastroenterology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361618 medRxiv
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Background & Aims: Fatigue is a central symptom of chronic liver disease (CLD), substantially impacting health-related quality of life (HRQoL). This study aimed to further understand CLD symptomatology, including fatigue, and its impact on HRQoL from a patient perspective. Methods: Abbott Global Assessment of Patients unmet needs (aGAP) was a multinational, cross-sectional survey in adults with compensated CLD in China, India and Mexico, conducted between July and November 2024. Adult participants who self-reported that they had physician-diagnosed CLD and were experiencing fatigue completed a quantitative survey to assess symptom burden and included three HRQoL patient-reported outcome (PRO) questionnaires (Patient-Reported Outcomes Measurement Information System [PROMIS]-29+2, Work Productivity and Activity Impairment - Specific Health Problem version 2.0 [WPAI: SHP], Multidimensional Fatigue Inventory [MFI]). Results: Overall, 505 participants (China: 200; Mexico: 105; India: 200) completed the study. Participants reported that their CLD-related fatigue sometimes, often or always affected their self-esteem/confidence (45.1%) and ability to maintain or acquire new employment (38.6%). Most participants reported moderate (51.3%) or serious (26.9%) fatigue, with 33.5% experiencing fatigue every day or almost every day. Many participants felt their social life was negatively impacted by their fatigue (47.3%) and that there were related financial difficulties (53.9%). Use of validated PRO tools demonstrated severe fatigue (MFI: overall mean [SD] 13.9 [3.4] general fatigue and 13.4 [3.6] physical fatigue) as well as substantial levels of work and activity impairment (WPAI: SHP overall mean [SD] 53.0 [26.4]) and high levels of anxiety, pain interference, depression and sleep interference (PROMIS T-scores [&ge;]54). Conclusions: Fatigue has a substantial impact on HRQoL among adults with CLD across several countries, highlighting a global unmet need for targeted interventions to effectively identify and manage the condition.

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Glaucoma and Diabetes Mellitus: A Comparative Evaluation of Comorbid Effect on Tear Quantity among Patients in Owerri, Imo State, Nigeria.

Chukwuoha, C. M.; Ovenseri-Ogbomo, G.; Azuamah, Y. C.; Odimegwu, N. E.; Obioma-Elemba, J. E.; Ugwoke, G.; Nkeremuzor, E. C.; Eronini, Y.; Ikoro, N. C.; Esenwah, E. C.

2026-09-02 ophthalmology 10.64898/2026.08.30.26361782 medRxiv
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Abstract Objective: Glaucoma is a chronic disorder that impairs ocular health and may exacerbate ocular surface disease leading to tear film instability, dry eye symptoms and decreased quality of life. This study compared changes in tear quantity among glaucoma subjects living with and without diabetes mellitus, attending an eye clinic in Nigeria. Methods: A comparative cross sectional research design was used. 157 subjects which comprised 74 glaucoma subjects living with diabetes mellitus and 83 glaucoma subjects living without diabetes mellitus participated in the study. Tear quantity assessment included the Schirmer I test and tear meniscus height (TMH) measurement. Descriptive statistics, independent samples t-test and Chi-square test were used to examine the data at 0.05 level of significance. Results: Glaucoma subjects living with diabetes mellitus showed substantially decreased tear production (11.4 +/- 6.8 mm) compared with glaucoma subjects living without diabetes mellitus (19.6 +/- 9.6 mm; p < 0.001). Tear meniscus height in glaucoma subjects living with diabetes mellitus (0.8 +/- 0.3 mm) was significantly greater than in subjects living without diabetes mellitus (0.7 +/- 0.3 mm; p = 0.034). Conclusion: Diabetes mellitus dramatically deteriorates the ocular surface function in glaucoma subjects by decreasing tear production, altering the tear meniscus height and increasing the severity of ocular surface symptoms. Routine glaucoma care, especially in patients with diabetes mellitus, should include a full ocular surface evaluation including Schirmer I test, TBUT, TMH, and OSDI assessment to allow early detection and management of ocular surface disease, better treatment adherence, and improved visual outcomes. Keywords: Glaucoma, Diabetes Mellitus, Tear production, Tear Meniscus Height, Ocular Surface Disease.

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An interpretable, formally verified point-of-care ultrasound risk equation for difficult videolaryngoscopy: development and internal validation

Oyarzun-Silva, R. A.; Hernandez-Hernandez, P.; Fernandez-Vaquero, M. A.; De Luis-Cabezon, N.

2026-09-02 anesthesia 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361621 medRxiv
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Background. Videolaryngoscopy still requires adjuncts or hyperangulated rescue in a clinically important minority, and bedside screening discriminates modestly. Point-of-care ultrasound (POCUS) of the anterior airway is a promising alternative, but existing prediction models are opaque or assume a pre-specified functional form. We developed and internally validated a parsimonious, fully disclosed POCUS risk equation whose form is recovered from data and whose structural properties are machine-checked by formal proof - to our knowledge the first formally verified clinical risk predictor - following TRIPOD+AI 2024. Methods. In a prospective single-centre, single-operator cohort of 259 adults undergoing elective videolaryngoscopy (no-Easy airway 68/259, 26.3%), Sequentially Thresholded Least Squares with bootstrap stability selection (B=300) screened a 71-term library of nine POCUS features and retained a seven-term logistic equation; a two-term bootstrap-stable model was pre-specified as robustness analysis. Internal validation used 5x10 repeated cross-validation plus temporal and device hold-outs, with pre-specified overfitting and optimism assessments. Five behavioural properties of the deployed equation were machine-checked in Lean 4. Results. Two interactions met the |c|/sigma_c>2 stability criterion: skin-to-epiglottis x skin-to-hyoid-bone distance and tongue volume x sagittal tongue area. The seven-term equation reached a 5x10 cross-validated C-statistic of 0.966 (optimism-corrected 0.968) and held across temporal and device hold-outs (0.94-0.97). Calibration-in-the-large matched prevalence, with cross-validated slope 0.90 attenuating to 0.625 out-of-time; standard recalibration restored 0.92 without loss of discrimination. The pre-specified two-term robustness model reproduced this performance (C-statistic 0.964-0.968; events-per-parameter 34; shrinkage 0.99), confirming the result is not an artefact of the screening stage. Net benefit over a clinical baseline was positive across 10-50% thresholds. All five Lean 4 theorems compiled without sorry. Conclusions. A sparse, formally verified POCUS equation predicts difficult videolaryngoscopy with high internally validated discrimination and quantified, modest overfitting. Because the equation was developed in a single-operator cohort and its inputs are operator-dependent, external validation requires prior harmonisation of the measurement protocol and operator credentialing.

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The accuracy of urine-based mycobacterial antigens to detect childhood tuberculosis using an ultrasensitive immunoassay

Nkereuwem, E.; Misaghian, S.; Jaganath, D.; Calderon, R. I.; Luiz, J.; Paradkar, M.; Wambi, P.; Castro, R.; Nerurkar, R.; Wang, M.; Wohlstadter, J.; Franke, M. F.; Kampmann, B.; Kinikar, A.; Zar, H. J.; Segal, M.; Kato-Maeda, M.; Collins, J. M.; Swaney, D.; Cattamanchi, A.; Ernst, J. D.; Wobudeya, E.; Sigal, G.; The Combo Study,

2026-09-02 infectious diseases 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361530 medRxiv
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Background. Urine-based testing offers a promising non-sputum approach for diagnosing paediatric tuberculosis. However, the currently available lipoarabinomannan (LAM) assay shows limited sensitivity in children and is primarily indicated for those living with HIV. Co-detection of LAM with Mycobacterium tuberculosis (Mtb) proteins in urine could provide complementary pathogen-derived biomarkers that improve diagnostic performance. Methods. We developed an ultrasensitive multiplex electrochemiluminescence (ECL) immunoassay to measure Ag85B, CFP-10, ESAT-6, MPT32, and MPT64 in urine. We determined the analytical limits of detection and evaluated the diagnostic performance of individual proteins and LAM using urine samples from children with Confirmed, Unconfirmed, and Unlikely pulmonary tuberculosis enrolled across five high-burden countries (The Gambia, India, Peru, South Africa, and Uganda). Performance was assessed overall, by HIV and nutritional status, and across biomarker combinations. Findings. Urine samples from 630 children were analysed (median age was 4 years [IQR 2-8]; 44% female, 15% living with HIV, 19% underweight, 24% with Confirmed tuberculosis). The ECL assay achieved femtomolar limits of detection (1.5 to 4.0 fM). The sensitivity and specificity of individual Mtb proteins were 12-33% and 98-100%, respectively. Ag85B had the highest sensitivity (33%, 95% CI 26-41) for Confirmed tuberculosis and was similar to LAM. A four-antigen signature (Ag85B, MPT64, MPT32, LAM) was 50% sensitive (95% CI 42-58) and 94% specific (95% CI 90-96), and was significantly more sensitive than LAM alone, in particular among those without HIV. An additional sixteen (10%) of children with Unconfirmed TB had at least one Mtb protein or LAM detected. Interpretation. Multiple Mtb proteins are detectable in paediatric urine with high specificity, and multi-antigen signatures can augment sensitivity versus LAM alone. These findings demonstrate the potential of multi-antigen urine detection for childhood TB and define analytical targets for the development of future point-of-care diagnostics. Funding. National Institutes of Health.

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Non-inferior survival and enhanced longevity with initial low-dose versus full-dose enzalutamide: a single-centre real-world prostate cancer study

Gorobets, O.; Vinh-Hung, V.

2026-09-02 oncology 10.64898/2026.08.28.26361616 medRxiv
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Background: Prostate cancer enzalutamide treatment is approved at a standard dose of 160 mg daily. Concerns for real-world patients -- older and more fragile than those enrolled in clinical trials -- have prompted consideration of initiating treatment with lower doses, but the long-term efficacy of this approach remains unknown. We evaluate the long-term survival and longevity in patients treated with standard versus upfront low-dose enzalutamide. Methods: Retrospective analysis of 151 patients treated with enzalutamide (102 receiving 160 mg; 49 receiving [&le;]80 mg) between 2014--2021 at the Centre Hospitalier Universitaire de Martinique, with complete follow-up through end of life (98.7% completeness of follow-up). Primary outcomes were overall survival (OS), progression-free survival (PFS), and longevity (attained age). Results: Doses [&le;]80 mg were associated with longer median OS (36.3 vs. 20.7 months), improved restricted mean OS (difference of 0.7 years, p=0.05), and enhanced longevity (median 82.5 vs. 78.3 years, p=0.004). PSA response rate at 12 weeks was higher with lower-dose (71.4% vs. 48.8%, p=0.016). In multivariable models adjusted for prognostic factors, [&le;]40 mg compared with 160 mg was non-inferior regarding OS (HR=0.61, 95% CI 0.36--1.06), superior regarding PFS (HR=0.59, 95% CI 0.35--0.99), and superior regarding longevity (HR=0.48, 95% CI 0.28--0.84). Bone metastasis, poor performance status, PSA response, time to PSA nadir, and disease duration were independent predictors of outcomes. A post-hoc analysis revealed a strong association between dose and physician-prescribing profiles, ranging from "endorse-lowest-dose" to "never-deviate-from-full-dose". Conclusions: Lower doses of enzalutamide were non-inferior to full-dose. Dose-adapted strategies warrant further investigation.